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Evolutionary Ecology

Springer Science and Business Media LLC

Preprints posted in the last 30 days, ranked by how well they match Evolutionary Ecology's content profile, based on 15 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.01% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Interspecific variation in reproductive and foraging traits for raptors breeding in Norway

Sandvik Halgunset, E.; Mellard, J.

2026-06-29 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.28.734957 medRxiv
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Arctic and Boreal raptor communities will continue to be affected by borealization and other climate change related processes, providing a challenge for ecologists predicting future sates. However, by using community assembly theory and species traits, future communities may be predictable. In this study, we analyzed variation in reproduction traits as a consequence of diet specialization for 29 raptors, 2 skuas and 3 corvids. We assessed and implemented foraging traits for specialists and generalists into predator-prey models from which successful invasion conditions were derived. Specialist raptors produced larger clutch sizes, had a higher proportion of fledged per clutch and also expressed more variation compared to generalist raptors. These results suggest a relationship between diet specialization and reproductive traits which was also observed within phylogenetic orders. Specialist owls (Strigiformes) produced higher clutch sizes with a larger clutch range compared to generalist owls. The same pattern was observed for falcons (Falconiformes). No clear difference in reproduction was observed for specialist and generalist hawks, kites and eagles (Accipitriformes). Corvids expressed clutch sizes similar to that of specialist raptors while having the lowest proportion of fledged per clutch. Differences in foraging traits between specialists and generalists could be distinguished using functional response curves. A predator-prey model parameterized with foraging trait data showed that a generalist can coexist with a resident specialist if it has access to prey unavailable to the resident specialist. Otherwise, the native specialist outcompetes the invading generalist due to foraging efficiency. The combined empirical and theoretical findings in this study show how diet specialization affects both reproduction and the potential invasion success of raptors.

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Color polymorphism in the saddleback clownfish, Amphiprion polymnus: species or complex?

Fitzgerald, L. M.; Coulmance, F.; Marcionetti, A.; Gaboriau, T.; Garcia Jimenez, A.; Apag, P. T.; Versteeg, M.; Noble, F. J.; Gaffney, K.; Mercader, M.; Diola, A. G.; Geraldino, P. J.; Rueger, T.; Laudet, V.; Salamin, N.

2026-06-29 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.28.735040 medRxiv
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Color polymorphism can facilitate local adaptation, maintain intraspecific diversity, or reflect early stages of speciation. Clownfishes (Amphiprion spp.) typically display a simple black, orange, and white pattern, but the saddleback clownfish (Amphiprion polymnus) shows striking variation in melanism and the number of vertical bars, which are thought to play a role in species recognition. In 2024, a revision on iNaturalist split A. polymnus into multiple species based solely on color pattern and geographic range. This raises the question of whether these morphs represent true species or intraspecific polymorphism, which we tested using genomic and image-based data. We sampled 97 individuals from seven populations across the species range and quantified color patterns from standardized photographs. Phenotypic and genomic analyses reveal a complex pattern of divergence. Image analysis identified three distinct phenotypic clusters, with A. polymnus, A. annamensis, and A. laticlavius each showing consistent differences in saddle shape and vertical bar extent. ADMIXTURE resolved three distinct genetic groups corresponding to the morphs. Pairwise FST (0.54-0.71) and dxy indicate extremely high differentiation between A. polymnus and A. annamensis, consistent with species-level divergence, whereas A. laticlavius shows much lower differentiation from A. polymnus (FST 0.09-0.18) and higher differentiation from A. annamensis (FST 0.64-0.66). Overall, phenotypic and genomic data show structured variation, but the status of A. laticlavius remains ambiguous. Our study reveals clear and structured divergence across the full range, yet the taxonomic interpretation of this variation remains inherently challenging. The key question remains: do these patterns reflect a single polymorphic species or a complex of closely related species?

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Comparison of directional random walk and weighted least squares modeling of sparse fossil data

Ergon, R.

2026-07-01 evolutionary biology 10.64898/2026.06.26.734751 medRxiv
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The general random walk model (GRW) of Hunt (2006) is used to infer directional evolution in mean trait values from sparse fossil data by modeling phenotypic change as the accumulated result of small steps with mean step sizes and step variances. Using simulations and real data cases, Ergon (2026) showed that the step variances can be estimated reasonably well only when the mean trait values have small measurement errors, while for fossil data with realistic measurement errors they appear to be extremely difficult to find, and they are often found to be negative. In the simulations Ergon (2026) assumed that the true phenotypic mean values were known. Here, I essentially repeat these simulations under the assumption that only mean trait values with large measurement errors are known, and based on weighted mean squared error (WMSE) comparisons the conclusion is that weighted least squares (WLS) is a better method than GRW. A second conclusion is that WLS is a better method also in the possibly rare cases with large measurement errors where the GRW parameters are estimated well. The GRW method is simply not flexible enough to handle such cases. A third conclusion is that Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) results for GRW models with large measurement errors relative to the step variance may be overly optimistic.

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Environmental tolerance, species interaction, and the link between the fundamental and realized niches: Insights from a hypersaline planktonic system

Guyot, L.; Fereol, S.; Jabbour-Zahab, R.; Chevin, L.-M.

2026-06-27 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.26.734780 medRxiv
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The impacts of a changing abiotic environment on fitness and performance arise not only from low tolerance to new environmental conditions, but also from changes in the abundance and interaction intensity with other species. The strength of the interaction may itself depend on how well each species performs across environments, but there is a dearth of studies investigating how intrinsic fitness and interaction intensity covary across an abiotic environmental gradient. We addressed this question in a hypersaline consumer-resource system: the microalga Dunaliella spp. grazed by the brine shrimp Artemia franciscana. We exposed four Dunaliella strains to a range of salinities above seawater, with or without brine shrimps, and tracked their population sizes over time and the survival of their predators, to estimate basic parameters of a Lotka-Volterra model. We found that the intrinsic growth rate of algae, the survival rate of predators, and the per-capita predation rate, all varied with salinity and algal strain. Significant interactions between strain and salinity further revealed that these ecological responses to salinity are evolvable. Together with correlations between demographic parameters across salinity, this suggests that predation may influence the evolution of salinity tolerance curves, blurring the line between the fundamental and realized niches.

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Complex interplay of biomechanics and ecology influenced crab claw morphology evolution

Bicknell, R. D. C.; Wolfe, J. M.; Flynn, J. J.; Klompmaker, A. A.; Chase, M.; Fu, P.; Hopkins, M.

2026-06-23 ecology 10.64898/2026.06.23.733945 medRxiv
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True crabs (Brachyura) are among the most iconic marine arthropods, representing noteworthy examples of morphological and ecological disparity. A striking feature of brachyurans are their anterior pincer-like appendages: chelipeds. These structures showcase a large diversity of morphologies that reflect ecology and overall multifunctionality. Yet, a comprehensive assessment of appendage functional morphology within phylogenetic and ecological trait contexts has never been attempted. By combining 3D geometric morphometrics, finite element analyses, multilocus molecular phylogeny, and ecological trait data for 80 crab species, including three fossil forms, we unveil a complex evolutionary history for crab chelipeds. Despite extreme shape diversity amongst chelipeds, stress distributions are very similar across taxa and hint a many-to-one pattern. High concentrations of chelipeds within constrained morphospace regions associated with peak pinch forces illustrates that brachyuran morphologies optimised for shell crushing may have arisen in the Cretaceous. Deviations from this morphospace highlight the diversification of non-shell-crushing life modes and the influence of sexual selection on appendages. Neither cheliped shape nor pinch force show phylogenetic signal. Together these results indicate that the evolution of cheliped shape is closely associated with, and inferred to have been strongly influenced by, crab ecology, biomechanical needs and sexual selection. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENTChelipeds, the pincer-like claws of crabs, are among the most morphologically diverse appendages within Arthropoda, yet the evolutionary forces driving this diversity remain poorly understood. By integrating 3D geometric morphometrics, biomechanical modelling, molecular phylogeny, and ecological data across 80 crab species including fossil forms, we demonstrate that cheliped morphology is driven by ecology, biomechanical demands, and sexual selection rather than phylogenetic relatedness. The multifunctionality of these structures produces strong evidence for many-to-one mapping of form to function. Morphologies optimised for durophagy appear to have originated in the Cretaceous, with subsequent diversification into manipulative and sexually selected forms from a morphologically flexible foundation. These findings demonstrate that cheliped diversity reflects a complex interplay between ecological specialisation, biomechanical optimisation, and sexual selection across Brachyura.

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Macroevolutionary consequences of twin neck innovations in deep-sea dragonfishes

Santos, E. C.; Huie, J.; Capobianco, A.; Faucher, R.; Clardy, T.; Ludt, W. B.; Carnevale, G.; Arcila, D.; Martinez, C.

2026-06-25 evolutionary biology 10.64898/2026.06.21.733442 medRxiv
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The origin of novel phenotypes can influence access to new ecological resources, which may have positive, neutral, or negative effects on subsequent phenotypic diversification. In this study, we tested the macroevolutionary consequences of a pair of putative functional innovations occurring in deep-sea fishes of the order Stomiiformes. Integrating phylogenetic comparative methods, micro-CT scans, and external body measurements, we recover a mosaic of diversification trends associated with these innovations. We found some evidence for elevated evolutionary rates in tooth morphology associated with the predatory dragonfishes, which possess a gap between their vertebral column and skull that exposes the notochord and enables neck-like flexibility. However, a second novelty building upon the first, a functional neck joint enabling extreme cranial kinesis, was linked to faster rates of skull evolution. Our results suggest that innovations that help shift ecological roles and overcome functional constraints related to those roles, like gape-limitation in prey depauperate habitats, may play an important role in promoting phenotypic diversification. This work builds on a growing body of evidence highlighting how the deep sea promotes phenotypic diversity, generating the extreme forms that are celebrated by scientists and the public alike.

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Socioecological differentiation and the evolution of brain size and synaptic architecture in predatory ants, Neoponera

Azorsa, F.; Traniello, J. F. A.

2026-07-02 evolutionary biology 10.64898/2026.06.27.735026 medRxiv
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Brain size and structure are hypothesized to be adaptively designed to satisfy the behavioral requirements of securing food and living socially. The importance of these socioecological and sociobiological selective forces in brain evolution is constantly debated. Socioecological divergence is striking in the Neotropical ant genus Neoponera: N. apicalis is a generalist solitary predator forming small colonies of ~100 whereas N. commutata colonies are approximately 10 times as large and workers pheromonally organize cooperatively raids only on Syntermes termite colonies. We interspecifically compared the size and structure of the compound eyes, size and number of antennal glomeruli, mosaic brain scaling and synaptic processing (microglomeruli-MG). Our results indicate that N. apicalis workers have a larger number of ommatidia, antennal lobe glomeruli, and allometrically larger antennal and optic lobes than N. commutata. These sensory traits were associated with differences in higher-order processing architectures in the mushroom body (MB) microglomeruli (MG). N. commutata workers had an allometrically larger MB, perhaps due to their socially complex chemical foraging communication, although MG density in N. apicalis was higher in both the MB lip and collar, regions associated with processing olfactory and visual information, respectively. The increase in MG density in N. apicalis may be associated with higher demands for navigation, learning, and memory, as well as a higher density of antennal lobe glomeruli to support prey odor discrimination. In contrast, N. commutata workers had larger ommatidia and antennal lobe glomeruli. Larger ommatidia correlate with their diurnal/nocturnal habits and a larger MB Our findings indicate that differences in behavioral performance demands associated with socioecological differentiation are reflected in variation in visual and olfactory system structure, brain size, mosaicism, and synaptic organization. Our results support both social and ecological brain hypothesis as drivers of mosaic brain evolution.

8
Strong leaders promote cooperation in heterogeneous populations

Longhi, C.; Martinez-Vaquero, L. A.; Trianni, V.

2026-07-10 evolutionary biology 10.64898/2026.07.09.737424 medRxiv
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Many proposed mechanisms for the evolution of cooperation among unrelated individuals rely on relatively demanding cognitive abilities that are not widespread across taxa. In contrast, individual heterogeneity is a pervasive feature of animal groups, encompassing differences in personality as well as physical and cognitive traits. Such heterogeneity can promote the evolution of cooperation, yet its role has received comparatively little attention, particularly as a source of variation giving rise to social organization such as leadership. A specific form of leadership can emerge under unstable environmental conditions, when some individuals become better suited than others to initiate action and influence the behavior of their peers. Unlike fixed dominance hierarchies, emergent leadership can rapidly adjust to changing environmental conditions, thereby reshaping group organization. Because it does not require the maintenance of stable hierarchies, this form of leadership can arise even in species that do not have the cognitive capabilities to sustain complex social structures. In this work, we investigate the combined effects of individual heterogeneity and emergent leadership on the evolution of cooperation using an evolutionary game-theoretic model in which individuals may assume the roles of leaders or followers according to their strength, representing individual differences in suitability to prevailing environmental conditions. We examine different levels of population heterogeneity together with increasingly complex strategy sets requiring progressively greater informational requirements, allowing individuals to condition cooperation on their own strength, leadership role, or both. Our results show that the interplay between leadership and heterogeneity promotes the evolution of cooperation, particularly when only a small fraction of individuals act as leaders. Under these circumstances, cooperation evolves even when individuals employ the simplest possible strategies. Under harsher ecological conditions, cooperation can be sustained by more sophisticated strategies, specifically by conditional strategies that prescribe cooperation when individuals are strong or leading and defect when acting independently. Author summaryIn this study, we propose that emergent leadership mediated by individual diversity can boost the evolution of cooperation in animal groups. Building on growing evidence on the heterogeneity of animal capabilities and personalities, we focus on the fleeting leadership that emerges in animal groups when facing rapidly changing environmental conditions. We suggest that this type of leadership that emerges from individual differences in strength--a generic quality encompassing those characteristics that make an individual more fit to lead in a given situation--does not require complex cognitive capabilities from the animals and represents a valid alternative to more demanding strategies proposed in the past to explain the evolution of cooperation. Using an evolutionary game theory model, we show that if a population includes a few strong players, these can become influential leaders and guide the actions of their peers to achieve cooperation. Although the naive strategy of always cooperating is sufficient for cooperation to evolve, the introduction of more complex strategies leads players to cooperate only when they are more likely to be recognized as influential leaders. These strategies are more effective in promoting cooperation under unfavorable ecological conditions and are also more robust against exploitation by defectors.

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Anthropogenic subsidies reshape Ruby-throated Hummingbird (Archilochus colubris) interactions across spatial and temporal contexts: evidence from community-collected data

Narango, D. L.; Jones, A.; Rebozo, R.; Sosa, P.; Hallworth, M.

2026-07-06 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.03.733347 medRxiv
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1. Ruby-throated hummingbirds (Archilochus colubris) exhibit flower preferences and readily visit human subsidies like feeders. However, foraging behavior and plant-animal interactions may vary across spatial, temporal, and landscape gradients. Despite the popularity and ubiquity of Ruby-throated Hummingbirds in the eastern U.S., there has never been a quantitative assessment of their flower preferences or feeder use across broad scales. 2. We investigated how feeder visitation, flower visitation, and flower trait preferences vary by latitude, season, and land use in the northeastern United States using over 6 million occurrence records of Ruby-throated Hummingbirds and flowering plants, >2,100 annotated hummingbird-flower interactions, and >2,700 feeder visit occurrences. 3. We found that hummingbird feeder use declined over the year, increased with latitude, and was higher in developed landscapes. Flower visitation increased over the year across all latitudes, with higher visitation in developed landscapes. Finally, we found that native plant use diverged between landscapes, such that the probability of visiting a native flower increased over time in non-developed land uses but declined over time in developed ones, demonstrating that hummingbirds track the advancement of native floral phenology and use non-native, cultivated flowers as a human subsidy due to either availability or preferences. 4. Our preference and network models revealed that while hummingbird-plant network structure was similar across landscapes, the composition of important taxa shifted from native, wild species like Monarda and Impatiens to non-native, cultivated species like Salvia. 5. Using trait-based models of flower visitation, we found that hummingbirds preferred native, tubular, and red/orange flowers fitting the hummingbird pollination syndrome despite visiting >260 different plant species. Red and orange flowers were preferred across all seasons, suggesting color may be a reliable signal of nectar availability across species and contexts. Native and tubular flowers were strongly preferred during the breeding season; however, preferences relaxed during spring and fall migration. 6. These findings reveal the consistent preferences of Ruby-throated Hummingbirds for native, tubular, and red/orange flowers, and underscore how spatial and temporal factors reshape foraging behavior and trait preferences. Our results also highlight the value of community-collected data in characterizing plant-pollinator interactions across broad spatial and temporal scales.

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An open-access CT-based 3D anatomical dataset of extant sharks across all major lineages

Yao, S.; Liu, X.; Hou, Y.; Yin, P.; Zhang, X.; Cui, X.; Lu, J.

2026-07-02 evolutionary biology 10.64898/2026.06.29.734410 medRxiv
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Sharks exhibit extraordinary morphological diversity across a wide range of ecological niches, yet large-scale, high-resolution digital datasets of their internal anatomy remain limited. Here we present an open-access 3D shark anatomical repository derived from published X-ray computed tomography (CT) data, featuring manually segmented and systematically annotated models of the chondrocranium, visceral arches, axial skeleton, musculature, and viscera in standard STL format. The dataset comprises 117 individuals, representing 72 species across 25 families and all nine extant shark orders, with 115 full-body reconstructions and two head-only models. This open-access dataset offers a comprehensive resource for comparative anatomy, biomechanical simulations, evolutionary developmental biology and biomimetics research of extant sharks.

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Differential selection between sexes and the evolution of recombination in haplodiploids

Patel, V.; Roze, D.

2026-07-03 evolutionary biology 10.64898/2026.06.29.735359 medRxiv
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Eusocial Hymenoptera present the highest known recombination rates among metazoans, which evolved several times independently among bees, ants and wasps. Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain this observation, including stronger selection for recombination caused by coevolving parasites and pathogens, and strong sexual selection among haploid males due to male-biased sex ratios among reproductive individuals. In this article, we explore the effects of haplodiploidy and differential selection between sexes on the evolution of recombination, by analyzing a three-locus model in which selection for recombination stems from negative epistasis between selected loci. Our analytical predictions are compared with the results of individual-based simulations in which deleterious mutations occur along a linear chromosome. Our results show that, at mutation-selection balance for deleterious alleles, increasing the strength of selection against deleterious alleles (due to the effect of male haploidy and/or sexual selection) tends to reduce selection for recombination. However, an increase in the overall magnitude of negative epistasis (which may also be due to male haploidy and/or sexual selection) combined with the fact that recombination only occurs in females may increase selection for recombination substantially. Our model also shows that, in conditions favoring recombination, increasing recombination in meioses leading to parthenogenetic ovules (and male offspring) may yield stronger benefits than in meioses leading to fertilized ovules (and female offspring).

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Temporal variability and its effects on diversity maintenance in an agroecological matrix

Zepeda, V.; Garcia Jacome, L. G.; Azpeitia, E.; Abrica-Jacinto, N. L.; Benitez, M.

2026-07-13 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.10.737830 medRxiv
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Agroecosystems are dynamic ecosystems, constituted by patches of vegetation and agricultural use, where biodiversity is shaped by spatial and temporal variability. While most studies have focused on spatial composition and configuration, the role of temporal variability remains poorly understood. Yet, temporal dynamics can strongly modify species composition, abundance, and persistence in ecological communities. Temporal variability is particularly relevant in agroecosystems with rainfed agriculture where environmental conditions shift dramatically between rainy and dry seasons. In this paper, we assess the role of temporal variability on biodiversity maintenance in an agricultural matrix using a metacommunity model that simulates an agricultural landscape under rainfed conditions, that is, with abrupt seasonal changes in the agricultural patches. This model couples a local community network dynamic with a migration dynamic and is based on empirically documented features of rainfed agricultural matrices. Our results show that temporal variability provides new opportunities for species to recover from low densities. However, the effect of temporal variability is not straightforward. It depends on the initial and final conditions, the migration and mortality rates and the intensity of temporal variability. Overall, our findings highlight the need to further investigate temporal variability to better understand its role in shaping biodiversity in agricultural landscapes.

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Aposematic signals are dynamic over time in bioluminescent ostracods

Hensley, N. M.; Shulman, L. M.; Rivers, T. J.; Gerrish, G. A.; Herbert-Read, J.; Morin, J. G.

2026-06-26 animal behavior and cognition 10.64898/2026.06.22.733700 medRxiv
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Colour and contrast are commonly deployed in anti-predator signals like aposematism or deimatism. In oceans, colour information diminishes with depth, leaving blue bioluminescence the most common visual signal, regardless of function. Bioluminescence can deter predators, but without contrasting colours, how so is largely uncharacterized. Here, we test this by observing fish predators responding to prey that use defensive bioluminescence (Ostracods, Cypridinidae). By manipulating potential chemical defences of prey, and by comparing feeding responses to both luminescent and nonluminescent prey, we show that luminescent prey are unpalatable and use facultative bioluminescence as an aposematic signal. We observed active, luminescent prey secrete bioluminescence only after being attacked. Predatory fishes rarely consumed luminescent prey, especially compared to nonluminescent alternatives. Food treatments revealed that luminescent species may possess some unidentified defence over nonluminescent relatives because fishes also readily ate luminescent prey that had been treated (frozen or boiled), which removed such defences. Over the course of four experimental trials, predators were less likely to consume luminescent prey as their cumulative exposure to anti-predator light displays increased, indicative of learning. Despite their intermittency, temporally dynamic signals like aposematic bioluminescence may be as common and effective as better-studied static coloration, especially in marine ecosystems.

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The evolution of a condition-dependent mutation rate enhances evolvability

van Eldijk, T. J. B.; Riederer, J. M.; van Doorn, G. S.; Weissing, F. J.

2026-07-10 evolutionary biology 10.64898/2026.07.09.737419 medRxiv
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Empirical studies have demonstrated that mutation rates may change with individual condition, such as in the case of stress-induced mutagenesis. This has led to the hypothesis that condition-dependent (or "plastic") mutation rates could be selectively favoured, as the increased production of new mutants in times of maladaptation enhances evolvability, the ability to undergo adaptive evolution. However, while empirical evidence for condition-dependent mutation rates is accumulating, theoretical models studying their evolution are lacking. Here, we employ an individual-based simulation approach to examine the evolution of condition-dependent mutation rates in a changing environment. We find that condition-dependent mutation rates consistently evolve when the environment changes at an intermediate pace. Furthermore, populations with condition-dependent mutation rates are substantially better adapted to their (changing) environment. Finally, the evolutionary dynamics of condition-dependent mutation rates are both accelerated and destabilised when the mutation rate is self-referential (i.e., when mutator loci affect their own mutation rate). We conclude that condition-dependent mutation rates (and thus evolvability) can readily evolve in changing environments. Significance statementMutation provides the raw material for evolution. Mutation rates thus tune evolvability, the ability to undergo adaptive evolution: if mutation rates are too low, evolution is impeded; if mutation rates are too high, adaptive traits cannot be maintained. Using a theoretical model, we explore the evolution of plastic mutation rates that systematically depend on the condition of the organism and its environment. An example is stress-induced mutagenesis in bacteria, which is implicated in the evolution of antibiotic resistance. We show that plastic mutation rates readily evolve, providing "well-timed" variation specifically when organisms are poorly adapted. Such plastic mutation rates thus facilitate better adaptation to changing environments, and their evolution provides an example of evolvability itself evolving.

15
Competition among kin generates balancing selection in a wild population

Potter, T.; Kokko, H.; Reznick, D. N.; Travis, J.; Watson, B.; Bentzen, P.; Bassar, R. D.

2026-07-11 evolutionary biology 10.64898/2026.07.11.737918 medRxiv
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If an individuals niche is determined by its genotype, then competition for limiting resources should be most intense among individuals of the same genotype. Theory predicts this will act to maintain genetic variation, but whether this mechanism operates under natural conditions is unclear. Using long-term observations of a population of free-living Trinidadian guppies, we asked (i) whether competition was strongest between kin, and (ii) whether this process maintained genetic variation. Competition between kin was 1.5-1.8 times stronger than that between non-kin. This contributed to balancing selection: after [~]10 generations, variation was 29% higher than expected under drift. Our results show that relatedness can play a major role in structuring ecological competition, with broader consequences for theories of inclusive fitness. One-sentence summaryHeritable variation is maintained due to resource competition being more intense among kin.

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Local density shapes complete brood failure across species boundaries in two sympatric songbirds

Albery, G. F.; Knowles, S. C.; Jones, C. V.; Sheldon, B. C.; Firth, J. A.

2026-07-03 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.02.734466 medRxiv
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Reproduction in species with parental care involves sustaining a brood of offspring through an energetically demanding period, when shifts in resource availability, weather, predation risk, and parental condition can strongly alter offspring survival. The most extreme outcome is complete brood failure (death of all offspring), which is relatively frequent in many bird species and may occur when conditions cross a viability threshold. Although complete brood failure is important for shaping fitness variation and population dynamics, we have limited understanding of how intra- and interspecific density dependence governs these events, or of how factors such as habitat quality and disease burden contribute to them, because deriving this requires fine-scale, individual-level data collected across generations for multiple overlapping species. Using a dataset totalling 38,509 nesting attempts from great tits (Parus major) and blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus) in Wytham Woods, Oxford, UK, we examined how brood failure is shaped by local conspecific and heterospecific density, habitat structure, and avian malaria infection for a subset. Complete brood failure was frequent (14.75%), mostly involving chick mortality in the nest consistent with starvation, rather than brood removal by predators. Relationships between density and brood failure were strong but species-specific. Specifically, great tit failure risk was higher in neighbourhoods that remained densely populated across years, whereas blue tit failure risk was lower where annual great tit or combined density was high, but not where annual blue tit density itself was high. This suggests that local overall density reflects continuing constraint for great tits, while local annual density may partly track favourable within-year conditions and settlement patterns for blue tits. In great tits, failure was also more common where oak density was low and farther from the closest river (Thames), while habitat associations were weak in blue tits. Malaria infection was spatially heterogeneous and covaried with density and habitat, but infection status did not significantly explain complete brood failure. Together, these results show that complete brood failure is shaped by spatially structured local ecological context, and how density dependence in these events can differ in direction and timescale between sympatric species.

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The effect of genome organisation on selection efficiency in two contrasted plant species

James, J.; Lascoux, M.

2026-07-15 evolutionary biology 10.64898/2025.12.19.695387 medRxiv
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Does the distribution of fitness effects of new mutations vary across the genome? Under the classical Fisher Geometric Model (FGM) we might not expect it to. In FGM, phenotypic traits are envisioned as dimensions of a landscape, with fitness determined by position in the landscape, i.e., the particular combination of traits of an individual. New mutations are represented by vectors that move from an ancestral to a new phenotype. In classical FGM these vectors affect all trait dimensions simultaneously (universal pleiotropy). However, introducing partial and modular pleiotropy into an FGM framework leads to an expectation that parameters of the DFE will vary with mutational pleiotropy-the number of traits affected by individual mutations. Here we address this prediction by investigating whether traits related to mutational pleiotropy, expression level and network connectivity, affect the parameters of the DFE using whole genome data from A. thaliana and C. grandiflora, two closely related Brassica species that vary significantly in their demography and mating system, and therefore, in effective population size and the effects of linked selection. Results were similar across both species. We found that expression level and network connectivity were predictive of the parameters of the deleterious DFE, even once co-correlations among genome biology traits were accounted for. Our results suggest that, across the genome, molecular evolutio(high mutational pleiotropy). nary patterns agree with the predictions of FGM, albeit relaxing the assumption of universal pleiotropy, and that variation in mutational pleiotropy among genes is sufficient to have detectible effects on the DFE. Significance statementHow do the effects of new mutations vary across the genome? If mutations in some genes affect many traits (high mutational pleiotropy), we hypothesise they will be more strongly deleterious, with lower variance in their selective effects. We test this by investigating the distribution of effects of new mutations across genes that vary in features that are related to mutational pleiotropy: expression level, gene network connectivity, and number of associated GO terms. The mean strength and coefficient of variation of selection of new mutations varied across genes with different features in the manner expected by our hypothesis. This demonstrates that important parameters of molecular evolution can vary across the genome with genome architecture.

18
Model-free inference of evolution from allele frequency timeseries using permutation tests

Bertram, J.; Kushnir, A.

2026-07-03 evolutionary biology 10.64898/2026.07.01.735864 medRxiv
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Allele frequency (AF) timeseries allow us to directly observe the dynamics of evolution at a genetic level. However, extracting useful inferences from AF timeseries has proved difficult due to the model uncertainties and noisiness inherent in AF change at fine temporal scales. Here we present three new permutation tests --- which do not assume a model of evolutionary change or a parametric statistical model --- to detect AF timeseries features of evolutionary interest. The features identified by these approaches are: 1) any evolutionary change (as opposed to apparent change due to measurement error); 2) directional selection; 3) fluctuating selection with a propensity to change sign (negative autocorrelation). We are not aware of existing tests for features 1 and 3. Feature 2 is commonly tested using standard evolutionary models such as the Wright-Fisher; we show that the permutation approach has comparable statistical power. We apply our new approaches to AF timeseries data from D. melanogaster and D. pulex.

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Pollination responses to artificial light at night may vary with lighting arrangement

Li, D.; Adeniji, L. A. J.; Meah, R. J.; Clements, C. F.

2026-07-10 ecology 10.64898/2026.07.10.737511 medRxiv
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Artificial light at night (ALAN) can alter the movement of nocturnal pollinators such as moths, with potential consequences for pollination services. However, most studies have focused on the presence or properties of lights, while the role of spatial lighting configuration remains poorly understood. We conducted a small-scale field experiment to test how different lighting configurations affect pollination success in moth-pollinated plants, using low-intensity LED garden lights. Potted phytometer plants of three moth-pollinated species were exposed to one of three treatments: no-light control, isolated LED point lights, or 25 m linear arrays of multiple LED lights. We quantified pollination success as both the probability of seed set and reproductive output through seed and capsule production. Experimental lighting affected plant reproductive success, with light arrays increasing seed-set probability, seed and seed capsule number relative to unlit controls, whereas point lights showed no clear effect. These results provide preliminary evidence that the spatial configuration of artificial lights may influence nocturnal pollination outcomes. Future work combining phytometer assays with direct tracking of moth movement is needed to assess whether light arrays facilitate or redirect the dispersal of nocturnal pollinators.

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Triploid asexual freshwater snails grow faster than sexual diploid conspecifics regardless of dietary phosphorus availability

Najev, B.; Minthorn, Z.; Gordon, S.; Bliss, J.; McInville, C.; Chloros, V.; Abdella, W.; Neiman, M.; Krist, A. C.

2026-06-24 evolutionary biology 10.64898/2026.06.19.733397 medRxiv
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The number of chromosome sets per nucleus is a fundamental trait, but why this number is nearly always two for multicellular eukaryotes remains unclear. Chromosomes are made of nucleic acids, which possess abundant phosphorus (P). Therefore, producing new chromosomes, as well as generating new cells and organismal growth, demands substantial phosphorus. Yet, because P is often limiting in nature, P availability could influence the prevalence of diploidy versus polyploidy. Here, we compare growth rates of diploid and triploid Potamopyrgus antipodarum, a freshwater snail, relative to P availability. Because diploid P. antipodarum are obligately sexual while obligately asexual individuals are polyploid, costs associated with sensitivity to P limitation in polyploids could also help explain the maintenance of sexual P. antipodarum. We raised juvenile diploid and triploid snails on either P-adequate or P-deficient diets and found that independent of P availability, juvenile triploid asexual snails grew faster and harbored higher P content as adults than sexual diploid conspecifics. Together, these results suggest life-history advantages of polyploidy or asexual reproduction that exacerbate rather than ameliorate the cost of sex. These outcomes suggest that P availability is unlikely to be a main driver of ploidy polymorphism or the maintenance of sex in P. antipodarum.